Monday, July 19, 2004

Stay On Target...

Hokey religions and ancient weapons are no match for a good blaster at your side, kid. - Han Solo, Star Wars
I'm just waiting for the other shoe to fall.  I'm over halfway through the month, and I am running very well.  With such decent success, I have been left wondering if I've changed or the cards have changed.  Perhaps it's a little of both.
So far this month, I've managed to rake 5.66 big bets per 100 hands.  This is the best I've ever done in 50/1, though I have substantially better numbers on 1/2 6 max.  There are a lot of numbers and statistics I can look through, but it's almost information overload for me to try to break it down.  In any event, I will try.  Luck or skill?  Gillette says, "You Make The Call".
To date, I've played 2,625 hands.
- I have been dealt AA 8 times, and have won with them 6 times, averaging +$4.31 a hand.
- I have had KK 12 times, winning 7 of those hands for an average of +$1.48 per hand.
- I saw QQ 12 times also, but only won 5 times with the ladies for a loss of -$0.25 per hand.
- Big Slick suited and unsuited have both been huge letdowns.  I saw AKs 8 times and won only twice with them, for a -$0.88 per hand average.  AK off suit hit my screen 17 times but only held up twice for a loss of -$0.73 per hand.
So, of the top premium hands, I've lost more then I've won.  Interesting.
- My biggest winning hand thus far is, remarkably, K9s.  I've seen it 13 times and have won just over half the time with it.  Looking at the hand summaries, it looks like a hand that has either flopped complete monsters or was easy to get rid of post flop.  Small losses, big wins.  That hand is worth +$3.57 per hand.
- Biggest loser?  pocket 3's.  I've seem them 16 times and they've held up once, for 2 bucks.  I'm thinking these are probably being overplayed by me.
Other useless statistics:  The hand I've seen most is 82o.  The least is 97s.  I have gotten the Most Holy and Apostolic HAMMER 22 times, but sadly, they've failed to produce this month.
AA is my biggest winning percentage hand.  My second winningest hand is A4o.  Huh?
I've voluntarily put money into the pot 14% of the time.  When I saw the flop, I won the hand 26% of the time, and I've won at showdown a little under 65% of the time.  My aggression factor is 1.09.  If I were to take pre-flop out, my post flop and beyond aggression factor is 2.37.  Fold pre-flop, pound post-flop.
Okay, so that was fun with numbers.  I've noticed that the last few times I've played, I've started out down significantly for the first hour or so, once quite significantly, and I've managed to pull out a win.  I think most of the problem (and solution, strangely enough) are people that play any two cards to the river if they catch a piece of the flop or have even a remote draw.  Statistically, you need to pound the living shit out of these guys with bets and raises post flop if you're holding what likely is the winning hand, as they will pay you off more often then you pay them.  Losing two or three hands with this tactic though hurts badly.  On the other hand, you only need to score two or three of these hands to be sitting awfully good for the day.  In 50/1 Hell, there is one other factor that helps.
   Table selection.  Kids, I'm here to tell you, Party is the place to be.  I logged on at 10:30 Central tonight and there were over 43,000 people playing poker on Party Poker.  To this I can say only two words:
Holy shit.
   Envision Yankee Stadium during the Playoffs.  'Nuff said.
   Anyway, there's absolutely no reason why you should be sitting at a table that isn't working with your playing style.  Trouble with the table bully?  Move tables!  Think there's collusion going on?  Move tables (and report it)!  A known shark just swam up to the felt?  Time to head to fishier waters!  There are approximately 2.2314 shitloads of people out there on Party that are nothing but calling machines at the lower limits.  Your chance of hitting a table full of them in prime time on Party?  100% if you do a little shopping.
Party on, Wayne.


At 9:08 AM, Blogger Dr. Pauly said...

Love the Han Solo quote....

At 9:45 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Help me Dude, I'm lost.

I was searching for Elvis and somehow ended up in your blog, but you know I'm sure I saw Elvis in the supermarket yesterday.

No honest really, he was right there in front of me, next to the steaks singing "Love me Tender".

He said to me (his lip was only slightly curled) "Boy, you need to get yourself a shiny, new plasmatv to go with that blue suede sofa of yours.

But Elvis said I, In the Ghetto nobody has a plasma tv .

Dude I'm All Shook Up said Elvis. I think I'll have me another cheeseburger then I'm gonna go home and ask Michael Jackson to come round and watch that waaaay cool surfing scene in Apocalypse Now on my new plasma tv .

And then he just walked out of the supermarket singing. . .

"You give me love and consolation,
You give me strength to carry on "

Strange day or what? :-)

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