Wednesday, September 15, 2004

Same As It Ever Was

Apologies for no updates in a bunch of days. Short answer is, nothing much has been going on. I'm still bleeding chips, though today was a small winner. So far this month, I'm about 75BB down, which while by no means a tragic slide is certainly the longest streak of losing hours I've put up in my short poker career. So far, my average is -2.3BB/hr. Since I'm at work I'm not sure how many table hours I have in, but I do know I'm closing in on around 1700 hands.

I've seen stories of big, monsterous slides lasting for weeks but never really believed things like this were possible. I always assumed something changed that caused such a hideous downturn to an otherwise successful player. Sometimes this is true, and it is what prompted me to do some research on why I'm in such a dive. Granted, I didn't do a real in-depth analysis in terms of breaking down individual plays, but rather looking at my stats. One thing that stuck out above all others was that my aggression factor is higher.

Now, before my post flop aggression was around 1.6, which is kinda-sorta aggressive. This month it's up to 2.0, so I've turned up the heat a little bit when I'm in a hand. The trouble is, the pre-flop numbers. The aggression is about the same, but it looks like I'm really not getting my "fair share" of starting hands. As mentioned earlier, I'm also not winning my "fair share" of hands I'm in and when coupled with the stepped up aggression it all adds up to losing more money then I should be losing given this situation.

I firmly believe that the upped aggression is a result of covering my stack, thus having the "guts" if you will to put in those last bets on the river when I THINK I'm good, but I'm not POSITIVE I'm good. Unfortunately, when playing the 50/1 level, where no one folds for any amount, this ends up costing me extra bets when someone connects with bizarre cards and I bet into them.

I imagine that I'll be at least marginally more successful when I get to a level where I can at least read some of the players. At 50/1, you have absolutely no frikkin clue where these guys are coming from. I can't tell you how many times I'm sitting there with AK with a K and rags all over the board, no flush possibility, no straight possibility and some bozo pops a raise at me on the river only to show me his 53s and pulling down the pot with some effed up 2 pair he caught on the river. That's enough to want to put my fist through the monitor, covered up stacks or not.

I've also busted out of tables much more often then I used to. I think before I was covering up my stacks I busted off a table twice. I've been all-in at least a half dozen times, and have busted out twice this month alone, and it's only half over.

So, what to do... I guess in the short term, it's time to tighten way the hell back up and just wait it out. My best bet to get out of this 50/1 hell and move on with my poker life is to just ride this out and stick to absolute ABC machine-like play. In 50/1 you have to assume that the opposition could have anything. The last two weeks has made it painfully clear that this is indeed the case.

The good news is, I had a winning session today. It's one session, but it's not a losing one. One step at a time and eventually I'll get out of this crappy bottom limit hole.

Also, I want to thank my readers for taking the time and contributing through the comments. It's good to know you're out there and taking this crazy journey with me.


At 9:26 AM, Blogger Drizztdj said...

Keep fighting man. I've had the same troubles on the limit tables with variance.

I don't consider myself a NL/PL player but I've done very well on the $25NL/PL tables. You might want to consider a change if your bankroll can handle it.

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